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What is the difference between confidence and prediction intervals?

An example of an AI chatbot conversation about confidence and prediction intervals.

😀
You

What is the difference between confidence and prediction intervals?

MagicBuddy
MagicBuddy

Confidence intervals estimate the range in which a population parameter lies, while prediction intervals estimate the range for future observations.

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You

Can you give me an example of each?

MagicBuddy
MagicBuddy

Sure! A confidence interval might say that we are 95% confident the true mean lies between 10 and 20. A prediction interval might say that we expect a future observation to fall between 5 and 25.

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You

Why are prediction intervals wider than confidence intervals?

MagicBuddy
MagicBuddy

Prediction intervals are wider because they account for both the uncertainty in estimating the mean and the variability of individual observations.

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You

How do I calculate these intervals?

MagicBuddy
MagicBuddy

To calculate a confidence interval, use the sample mean, standard error, and a critical value from the t-distribution. For prediction intervals, add the variability of individual data points to the confidence interval.

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