What are some historical examples of polling bias?

What are some historical examples of polling bias?

Polling bias has been evident in various historical contexts. One notable example is the 1936 Literary Digest poll, which predicted a landslide victory for Alf Landon over Franklin D. Roosevelt. The poll was based on a survey of its magazine subscribers, who were predominantly wealthy, leading to a significant underrepresentation of lower-income voters who supported Roosevelt.

What caused the bias in that poll?

The bias in the 1936 Literary Digest poll was primarily due to its sampling method. The magazine surveyed its subscribers, who were mostly affluent individuals. This demographic did not accurately reflect the broader electorate, particularly the working class and those affected by the Great Depression, who were more likely to support Roosevelt.

Are there other examples of polling bias in recent elections?

Yes, more recent examples include the 2016 U.S. presidential election, where many polls underestimated Donald Trump's support. Some polls relied on models that did not account for certain demographic factors, leading to skewed predictions.

How can polling bias be minimized in future elections?

To minimize polling bias, researchers can use more representative sampling methods, ensure diverse demographic representation, and employ techniques like weighting responses to reflect the actual population better.