How accurate are polls in predicting election outcomes?

How accurate are polls in predicting election outcomes?

Polls can provide insights into voter preferences, but their accuracy varies based on methodology, timing, and sample size.

What factors can affect the accuracy of a poll?

Factors include the sample size, question wording, timing of the poll, and the demographic representation of respondents.

Are there any recent examples where polls were significantly off?

Yes, the 2016 U.S. presidential election is a notable example where many polls underestimated Trump's support.

How can I determine if a poll is reliable?

Check the methodology, sample size, and whether the pollster has a history of accuracy. Look for transparency in their process.